Things We Are Watching

• The equity market correction became one of the defining stories of the first quarter. After a long stretch of elevated valuations and relatively strong momentum, stocks pulled back meaningfully in March as investors weighed slower growth concerns, higher energy prices, and rising geopolitical uncertainty. Even after recovering some ground on March 31, the S&P 500 still finished the quarter down 4.81% year to date, which reinforces that the more important story remains the reappearance of volatility after a relatively calm stretch. It will be important to see whether that pullback proves to be a temporary repricing of risk or the beginning of a more prolonged period of market instability.
• Oil and broader energy markets remained central to the macro story throughout the quarter. Brent crude surged during March as the conflict involving Iran raised concerns about supply disruption and the security of key shipping routes, before falling back to $103.97 per barrel on March 31 as hopes for de-escalation improved. The bigger question now is whether that late-quarter pullback marks a true easing of pressure or simply a pause after a very sharp move higher.
• In the Treasury market, the 10-year U.S. note was near 4.32% on March 31 after briefly reaching 4.483% late last week. That reversal suggests investors are balancing two competing concerns: higher energy prices on one hand and weaker growth on the other. It will be interesting to see whether bonds continue to provide both income and some stability if equity volatility remains elevated into the second quarter.
• The labor market continues to look more cautious than broken. February job openings fell to 6.9 million, hires dropped to 4.85 million, and the hiring rate fell to 3.1%, the weakest reading since April 2020. The picture is not one of broad layoffs, but rather one of hesitation, and part of that caution may increasingly reflect the question many companies are asking around artificial intelligence: whether new tools will supplement existing teams, reduce the need for future hiring, or meaningfully replace certain functions over time. It will be worth monitoring how far that shift goes, particularly in more routine or entry-level roles.
• Market concentration remains an important theme beneath the surface of the major indexes. This quarter was a reminder that even the largest growth companies are not immune to correction risk, particularly when valuations are elevated and uncertainty rises. At the same time, the market still appears heavily reliant on a relatively small group of dominant firms to lead any meaningful recovery. It will be worth watching whether leadership begins to broaden from here or whether the largest companies continue to reassert themselves as conditions stabilize.

Noah Lewis
is a Financial Advising Analyst at Scholar Financial Advising.

Ask An Analyst

In this month’s edition, Evan Mills discusses the topic:
Jumpstarting Retirement Savings: What Families Should Know About the New Trump Accounts

Trump Accounts let families jumpstart a child’s retirement savings by allowing early, tax-advantaged contributions. Established under IRC Section 530A, they serve as a specialized traditional IRA for children under 18, with unique contribution, investment, and withdrawal rules before generally shifting to traditional IRA treatment at adulthood.

Why Families May Want One
The main advantage is that a child does not need earned income to fund the account. This distinguishes Trump Accounts from custodial Roth IRAs and makes them valuable for families seeking to start retirement savings before a child begins working. Eligible children born between 2025 and 2028 may also receive a one-time $1,000 seed contribution from Treasury if eligibility requirements are met.

Who Can Contribute
Parents, grandparents, and other family members may contribute, up to a total annual limit of $5,000. Contributions are considered completed gifts for gift-tax purposes and should be factored into the family’s overall gifting strategy, especially for those managing annual exclusion or lifetime exemption planning.

How the Money Is Invested
During the growth period, investments are restricted to low-cost, broad U.S. equity index funds or ETFs with strict expense limits. Active and sector funds are not permitted. This structure emphasizes low cost, broad diversification, and a long-term investment horizon. For many families, this simplicity is beneficial.

Access Before Age 18
This is not a flexible account. Withdrawals during the growth period are generally prohibited, and families should not treat them as a substitute for assets earmarked for education or other short-term needs. The restricted access keeps the account focused on long-term compounding, and that trade-off is worth understanding before opening one.

After Age 18
After the growth period, the account generally follows the rules of a traditional IRA. Distributions become taxable, and early withdrawal penalties may apply. The account remains a Trump Account rather than automatically converting to a standard IRA and tracks basis separately from other IRAs, which is important for families considering Roth conversions. If the child enters adulthood during a lower-income period, such as college or early career, this may be an ideal time to convert balances to a Roth IRA at a lower tax cost, securing tax-free growth before income increases. Families should plan for this opportunity before the child turns 18.

Where It Fits
Trump Accounts should complement, not replace, existing family strategies. A 529 plan is preferable for education funding, and a custodial Roth IRA is appropriate once a child has earned income. Trump Accounts are most suitable for retirement investing before a child earns wages, provided the limited flexibility and investment options align with the family’s needs.

Final Takeaway
Trump Accounts will not replace existing tools, but they can support families focused on early compounding, disciplined investing, and intentional gifting. The key is whether this account fits your broader plan. We are available to help you evaluate this option.

Evan Mills, MBA
is a Financial Advising Analyst at Scholar Financial Advising.